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Wednesday, June 06, 2001
BEHIND THE NEWS
Either him or us
Serbian deputy Prime Minister Zarko Korac told Dutch daily Trouw that Milosevic would be turned over to the Hague tribunal: "It's either him or us. There is a danger that we become Milosevic's hostages once again, and that has got to stop," said Korac.
Thus, Korac succinctly described the stakes in the game played by DOS and Socialist People's Party (SNP) over the Hague cooperation bill. Serbian Justice Minister Vladan Batic expressed his skepticism that SNP would alter its stance, estimating that this jeopardizes the work of the federal government, as well as the upcoming Brussels donors' conference. He added that several federal ministers had announced their resignations over the matter.
FreeSerbia sources in DOS confirmed this information, specifying that, besides deputy PM Miroljub Labus, President Kostunica also received resignation offers from Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic and federal Justice Minister Momcilo Grubac.
Although Kostunica promised Bush that he would ensure the support of SNP, it is not very likely that he will succeed. SNP is aware that by supporting the Hague cooperation bill, they would lose a considerable part of their electorate. This they cannot allow, since early elections in Montenegro could easily be called for September. Even if this doesn't happen and federal government survives the adoption of the Law, there will be early elections on the federal level, as DOS had promised.
The tousling over the Law gives a preview of the breakup of the SNP-DOS coalition. One possible scenario here is the formation of a minority federal government, hardly a pleasant situation for DOS, similar to Djukanovic's position in Montenegro.
If early elections are held on the federal level, it is highly likely that the same would happen in Serbia as well. Yugoslav president is under great pressure from his party to call for early elections on all levels. Among MPs of Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) in the Serbian parliament, there is a mood of hostility to Serbian PM Zoran Djindjic. Should early elections take place, DSS MPs are confident that their party would easily win majority of votes and seats in the parliament, allowing them to form a majority government without Djindjic.
Although Kostunica for now controls the more fervent advocates of this option, there is a rising view in his party that they no longer need to bond with Djindjic. Kostunica's party has already sent a clear message to the PM by abstaining from voting in recent debate over his justice minister.
Djindjic faces another great test in the Law on privatization. The discontent of DSS and Vojvodina parties with the draft bill has been holding back the adoption for almost a month. If this law doesn't get through the parliament, there would be a vote of confidence in Djindjic's cabinet.
Serbia today resembles Italy of 1943: just like Lucky Lucciano influenced the political events from jail, so today, Slobodan Milosevic, sitting in Central Prison, still holds in his hand the fate of 10 million people. Of course, with a little help from his Montenegrin friends.
With the downfall of federal and republican governments, all reforms would be delayed for more than six months, the time it takes to organize a pre-election campaign, form the parliament, and select new cabinets. There is also the question of the federal state, and membership of Serbia in international organizations-a necessary precondition for implementing reforms. Clearly, the stakes are high, and perhaps precisely this fact could make the two most powerful men in Serbia make some kind of deal.
Boris Milicevic
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