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Friday, April 27, 2001
ELECTIONS 2001
Defeat Belongs to Montenegro
In spite of the amazing turnout Montenegrin citizens failed to provide any answers to the burning question: would Montenegro embark on the path to independence, or would it remain in a federation with Serbia.
Judged by the turnout of 82 per cent in less than 13 hours at the recent elections in Montenegro, conducting a census in this republic would take less than 24 hours. In spite of the amazing turnout, that is unheard of in all of the former Yugoslavia, citizens failed to provide any answers to the burning question: would Montenegro embark on the path to independence, or would it remain in a federation with Serbia. The narrow victory of Djukanovic's coalition only prolonged the status quo of political ambivalence, instability and tensions.
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Elections results are unmerciful. The popular support for the independence option (advocated by the Montenegrin president), has been rising steadily over the course of the past ten years: from 17 to 54 per cent. Incidentally, that is precisely the percentage of votes won by the coalition "Victory Belongs to Montenegro", plus Liberal Alliance of Montenegro (LSCG), whose principal election promise was the attainment of independence, plus the minority parties, who already pledged their support in case of a referendum. On the other hand, there is the pro-Serbian bloc, consisting of the Socialist People's Party, People's Party and Serbian People's Party, called "Together for Yugoslavia", as well as People's Socialist Party (remember Monty Python in "The Life of Brian"?), which all together won almost 44 per cent.
On the face of it, the 10 per cent gap is not immaterial, but considering the results of the two key players, "Victory Belongs to Montenegro" (42 per cent) and "Together for Yugoslavia" coalition (40.5 per cent), the split in the Montenegrin society over the statehood issue becomes even more striking. Announcing that the referendum would not be called before the end of the year, President Djukanovic demonstrated that he is aware that his victory is too close a call, and that not all who voted for his coalition would support independence should it come to a referendum.
In spite of the evident satisfaction with the outcome, expressed by the officials of the Democratic Party of Socialists and the Socialdemocratic Party in the election night, they don't really have too many reasons to celebrate, for, in a way, they are the only losers. "Together for Yugoslavia" coalition won much more votes than anyone could have expected, LSCG accomplished its goal to be indispensable for forming the government. Albanian parties got their right to a minority list. In contrast, the election objectives of Djukanovic's coalition-winning an absolute majority in the parliament, and obtaining a two-third majority together with liberals and Albanian parties-have all gone unfulfilled.
Milo Djukanovic, votes |
By far the most harmful consequence of the elections for Djukanovic's government is the revelation that he is not as invincible as it appeared only a week ago. A quarter of the 42 per cent of Djukanovic's voters are all those policemen, judges, managers, employees of schools, hospitals and all the other public institutions, whose votes for the "Victory Belongs to Montenegro" coalition were either self-interested or founded on fear. Such voters are typically unreliable, inconsistent in their voting patterns and are quick to switch sides. At least now they can join the company of those who six months ago fully backed Slobodan Milosevic, and who are now talking about nothing but democracy and Vojislav Kostunica.
So Djukanovic finds himself trapped between two undesirable options. On one hand, if he calls for a referendum, he will need more than 30,000 votes - this is the difference between the required half of the total electorate (somewhat under 225,000) and the number of votes won by the pro-Montenegrin bloc (193,000). When we add to this the votes of those who voted for him, but do not support independence, as well as all the converts, it is clear that this strategy is not likely to be a very successful one for Djukanovic. It would be enough for the pro-Serbian bloc to organize even a mediocre anti-referendum campaign to prevent the required number of voters from taking part in the referendum. On the other hand, if Djukanovic keeps postponing the referendum, it could easily happen that he loses the valuable backing of the liberals. True, for now, they are not too fervent in pushing for the realization of their ten-year-old dream of independent Montenegro, but that is only because they hope to hold the police, finance and foreign affairs ministries in the forthcoming government.
SNP supporters |
Already it can be said that it would take a very swift and very large miracle to come to Djukanovic's rescue. Perhaps his best action now would be to fulfill his election promise from three years ago, when his slogan was "For a Better Life"-a life that, for a great majority of economically deprived Montenegrins has turned into a struggle for survival. But even in this field Djukanovic cannot escape from a vicious circle. In order to improve the state of the economy, he would need foreign capital, which will be tough to win, considering that the EU and the U.S. are conditioning their aid on the survival of FRY. Equally miraculous would be some decision on part of Serbia aimed at harming the interest of Montenegro, something like Milosevic's illegal amendments to the federal constitution from last year.
For Djukanovic and the whole independence idea, these elections have been a dead-end street. The defeat belongs to Montenegro, for not choosing a winner last week. The defeat belongs to Montenegro for lacking a democratic alternative to a coalition of extreme Serbian nationalists and communists, who have served Slobodan Milosevic far too long to deserve to be forgiven.
Boris Milicevic
photo: Andrija Ilic
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